Research on AI, markets and measurement. Each piece states in advance what would prove it wrong: calibrated probabilities, pre-registered hypotheses, or an explicit list of what the method cannot see.
Forecasting the collision of AI and modern mercantilism, 2026 to 2036
AI and mercantilism as one competition for five scarce inputs: capital, energy, critical minerals, semiconductors and skilled labor. 24 binary forecasts with objective resolution criteria, calibrated from 0.40 to 0.88.
Bridgewater Associates × Global Citizen, Forecasting the Future Challenge
Working paper
Weights every public buyer action by what it cost the actor to produce. Intent in log-odds with Good's weight of evidence, a hazard model so silence counts, and an explicit contract for what the instrument cannot see.
Working paper
A pre-registered cold-start design for the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Extends latent-attrition models into the cold-start case with a graph-structured prior. Seven falsifiable hypotheses registered before any data was fit.
Working paper and reproducible pipeline
Power, policy and wellbeing, 2025 to 2035
Health data and clinical AI as sovereign infrastructure. 20 calibrated forecasts and a macro feedback model tested against five country cases.
Independent research paper
Lifetime fan value from social graphs and engagement heatmaps
1.2 million fan profiles and 150 million touchpoints, graph embeddings and survival regression, 88.4% out-of-sample accuracy against an RFM baseline.
MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, past first-round review
Research reports, posts, guides and a founder letter I wrote for Searchalong and Keystone. Each opens on the product's own site.
A framework, a metric called Share of Answer, and a cited review of public evidence on how buyers now reach brands through AI answer engines.
Read on searchalong.xyzA Q3 follow up to the July report on what held, three shifts in buyer behavior over the summer, and where the tooling bar has moved.
Read on searchalong.xyzA mid-2026 snapshot of how buyers use AI answer engines, which engines lead, how the tooling groups, the unsolved gaps, and six predictions for H2.
Read on searchalong.xyz